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Research Notes: Bernaerts: Works on Paper I & II
Bernaerts · Belgium · Apr 1, 2026
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Bernaerts: Works on Paper I & II
Bernaerts · Belgium
Date:
Apr 1, 2026
Status:
Preparing
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https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116
https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1XQW/works-on-paper-ii-lot-1500-1836
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# BERNAERTS Prints Arbitrage Scan for Works on Paper I and II ## Catalog universe, filters, and what could be verified This analysis treats the attached BERNAERTS AUCTION export (CSV/XLSX/PDF) as the lot universe for **editioned prints / multiples** within **Works on Paper I (Lots 1000–1116)** and **Works on Paper II (Lots 1500–1836)** on **April 1** (Works on Paper II scheduled for **2pm Antwerp time** per the Invaluable mirror). [\[1]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm) A practical limitation affected “lot-sheet completeness”: the primary BERNAERTS live bidding domain requires JavaScript / app-based rendering (mirrors show the JS wall), which prevented direct scraping of every BERNAERTS lot page for medium/edition/condition fields in this environment. [\[2]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-EPJCA4?jump_to_lot=1658) As a result, every “deal” below is framed as *auction-arbitrage* contingent on confirming the **exact object type** (original print vs. poster/offset), **signature/numbering**, and **edition details** at viewing or via the alternate mirrors that do expose full “lot details” (when available). Selection filters applied as instructed: * **Prints/multiples / editioned works** (as indicated by the export’s “prints-only” universe and cross-checking against known print-series titles). * **Buy-side price discipline:** focus on lots whose **BERNAERTS estimate implies an expected hammer < $5,000** (USD conversion handled explicitly below). * **Edge requirement:** prioritization where *comp-supported* upside can plausibly exceed \~30% **net of BERNAERTS buyer costs + resale auction seller costs**, with assumptions labeled. ## Buy-side cost model at BERNAERTS and FX normalization ### Buyer’s premium and auction-side charges The most explicit, sale-specific fee statement available through a public mirror is on the Invaluable auction page for this exact BERNAERTS sale: * **Buyer’s premium:** “**30% + €2 administration fee per lot**,” and it may be increased by **artist’s resale right (droit de suite) where applicable**. [\[1]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm) For reserve behavior (relevant to “how low can you steal it”), a BERNAERTS info brochure states that for lots with estimate under €5,000, a “**discrete limit**” (effectively a reserve) is set at **75% of the low estimate**. While this brochure is not sale-specific, it is operationally important because it constrains “lowball” strategies. [\[3]](https://www.bernaerts.eu/catalog/pdf/Infobrochure_binnenwerk2023_WEB.pdf) ### FX standardization to USD To normalize BERNAERTS euro-denominated estimates/costs into USD for modeling, this report uses the **ECB EUR→USD reference rate for 31 March 2026** (the day before the sale): **1 EUR = 1.1498 USD**. For comps reported in GBP, this report uses **approximate spot conversion** (explicitly labeled as approximate), because a source-specific GBP→USD rate for each comp date was not fetched within the tool-call constraints. ### All-in acquisition cost formula used For each candidate lot, “all-in” buy-side cost is modeled as: **All-in (USD)** = HammerEUR1+0.30+€2admin+resaleright,ifapplicable × 1.1498 + Shipping/Insurance Assumptions (clearly labeled): * **Tax/VAT:** treated as **$0 incremental** for the modeled buyer (business/export context), because the mirror language frames the 30% as the relevant buyer-side levy and does not present an additional, sale-wide VAT-on-hammer rule for this specific session. [\[1]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm) * **Resale right:** modeled conservatively as **4% of hammer when hammer > €2,000** (a simplification that can overstate for some price bands). The BERNAERTS mirror flags that it *may* apply; exact schedule must be verified. [\[1]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm) * **Shipping/insurance:** simple flat assumptions by scale: **$250** (most single-sheet prints), **$300** (larger framed works), **$400** (oversized / higher-handling risk). ## Comp methodology and fair value logic Comps are restricted to **auction outcomes** and auction-house/auction-mirror records. Where a public record reports a “Sold” value that likely includes buyer’s premium, this report treats that as a **buyer-paid / premium-included ceiling** and backs into a *proxy hammer* using a typical premium range only when necessary (explicitly labeled). Key comp anchors used in this report include: * For **Warhol Flash** single-sheet examples: **Artcurial** sold examples with full descriptions including “signed and numbered” and dimensions, with “Sold” prices in EUR. [\[4]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a) * For **Hockney Blue Guitar (“It Picks Its Way”)**: a **Phillips** result page with a reported sold figure and full lot details (including edition), plus a **Bonhams** archive result (premium included) for historical range-check. [\[5]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) * For **Miró Homenatge à Joan Prats**: an **Invaluable** archived listing (Auctionata) giving editioning/signature and estimate guidance (not a sale, but market signal), and an **Auctionet** listing with physical/edition details and condition notes. [\[6]](https://www.invaluable.com/auction-lot/joan-miro-lithograph-from-homenatge-a-joan-prats--44-c-32f478eaf6) * For **Turrell Still Light** (series context): a **Christie’s** lot page for the complete set of eight aquatints, providing edition structure and confirming the suite’s market framing. [\[7]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029) ## Ranked arbitrage candidates The table below ranks **actionable** candidates where the upside is comp-supported enough to underwrite an *auction-to-auction* flip (seller-cost adjusted) **if—and only if—the BERNAERTS lot matches the expected “signed/numbered original print” profile**. Assumptions baked into the economics (uniform across rows unless noted): BERNAERTS BP 30% + €2 [\[1]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm), EURUSD 1.1498 , resale seller commission assumed **15%** + **$100 lot fee** + **$150 outbound shipping/insurance to resale venue** (assumptions; seller terms are typically negotiated). |Lot No|Artist / Title|BERNAERTS Estimate|Your Fair Value (Base, hammer USD)|All‑in Cost (Est., USD)|Optimal Resale Venue|Value Realization (%)|Expected ROI (Base %)|Liquidity Tier|Notes| |-:|-|-|-:|-:|-|-:|-:|:-:|-| |1569|David Hockney[\[8]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a) — *It picks its way, from The Blue Guitar*|€800–€1,200|\~$4,600|\~$2,800 (at €1,714 max hammer for 30% ROI)|Phillips[\[9]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a) (Editions / Prints)|\~+300%|\~+109% if bought near mid-estimate|A|Strongest comp alignment; multiple public auction references for the exact print. [\[10]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191)| |1514|Andy Warhol[\[11]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm) — *Flash‑November 22* (1963–68)|€1,400–€1,600|\~$5,750|\~$3,450 (at €2,118 max hammer for 30% ROI)|Christie's[\[12]](https://www.moma.org/collection/works/200720) (Prints \& Multiples)|\~+233%|\~+82% if bought near mid-estimate|A|Artcurial sold single-sheet “Flash - November 22, 1963 / 1968” examples at €5,248 and €8,528 (“Sold” likely incl. premium). [\[13]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a)| |1534|Joan Miró[\[14]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029) — *Homenatge a Joan Prats*|€2,500–€3,000|\~$6,900|\~$4,200 (at €2,604 max hammer for 30% ROI)|Christie's / Phillips: Prints|\~+118%|\~+24% if bought near mid-estimate|B|Auctionata/Invaluable listing shows signed, numbered print from the portfolio, suggesting higher market clearing than BERNAERTS estimate if matching that edition profile. [\[15]](https://www.invaluable.com/auction-lot/joan-miro-lithograph-from-homenatge-a-joan-prats--44-c-32f478eaf6)| |1641|James Turrell[\[16]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029) — *Squat* (Still Light series)|€2,000–€3,000|\~$6,900 (proxy)|\~$4,900 (at €2,541 max hammer for 30% ROI)|Christie’s / Phillips: Post‑War \& Contemporary Prints|\~+140%|\~+32% if bought near mid-estimate|B|Suite context and edition structure are documented for the complete set at Christie’s; single-sheet liquidity depends heavily on whether BERNAERTS lot is an individual signed/numbered aquatint vs. something else. [\[7]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029)| |1559|Friedensreich Hundertwasser[\[17]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) — *Homage to Schröder‑Sonnenstern*|€400–€600|\~$1,950 (proxy)|\~$1,310 (at €557 max hammer for 30% ROI)|Mid‑market European print auctions|\~+240%|\~+41% if bought near mid-estimate|B|Fair value is heuristic here (no public sold comps retrieved in time). Only pursue if clearly signed/numbered and from a recognized edition catalogued for Hundertwasser.| |1572|Joseph Beuys[\[18]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029) — *Stirn \&...*|€400–€600|\~$1,725 (proxy)|\~$1,180 (at €457 max hammer for 30% ROI)|Christie’s / Bonhams: Editions \& Works on Paper|\~+200%|\~+22% if bought near mid-estimate|B|Heuristic fair value without retrieved sold comps; only proceed if edition/signature matches established Beuys print market.| ## Deal dossiers for the best opportunities ### Lot 1569 — Hockney, *It Picks Its Way, from The Blue Guitar* **Why it screens as mispriced** Public auction records show this exact Blue Guitar print selling materially above a €800–€1,200 estimate band when it is a standard signed/numbered edition impression. **What the work is supposed to be (print-market identity check)** MoMA lists *It Picks Its Way from The Blue Guitar* as an etching/aquatint from the Blue Guitar portfolio with **edition 200**. [\[19]](https://www.moma.org/collection/works/200720) Phillips’ lot page for the same title provides the market-facing lot format and reports a sale at **£4,128** (site’s “Sold For” convention is typically buyer premium–inclusive unless explicitly “hammer”). [\[20]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) Bonhams shows a historical sale where the work sold for **$2,040 inc. premium** (San Francisco, 2008) with edition and condition descriptors. [\[21]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/) **Comps used (auction-only)** - Phillips: sold for **£4,128** (premium likely included), includes edition and size in listing. [\[20]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) - Bonhams: sold for **$2,040 inc. premium** (historical floor context). [\[21]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/) **Fair value range (hammer, USD-equivalent)** Because key public records tend to report premium-inclusive results, this report treats them as a ceiling and backs into a conservative hammer band: * **Low FV (hammer):** \~$3,400 * **Base FV (hammer):** \~$4,600 * **High FV (hammer):** \~$5,750 (GBP→USD conversion is approximate; directionally the mispricing signal is strong because BERNAERTS estimates are in the \~€1k range.) **All-in acquisition model (showing assumptions)** - Buyer’s premium: 30% + €2 [\[1]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm) - Shipping/insurance assumption: $250 - Target max hammer to preserve ≥30% base ROI: **\~€1,714** Modeled all-in at €1,714 hammer: All-in EUR ≈ €1,714×1.30 + €2 ≈ €2,230 → All-in USD ≈ $2,560 + $250 shipping ≈ **$2,810** (rounded). **Resale routing (auction-only exits)** Best-fit venues are those already clearing Blue Guitar impressions: * Phillips (Editions / Prints): already has a documented sold record. [\[20]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) * Christie's (Prints \& Multiples): strong liquidity for blue-chip editions. * Bonhams (Prints): established secondary channel for Hockney prints. [\[21]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/) **Resale economics (base case)** Assume resale hammer \~$4,600; seller commission 15% + $100 lot fee + $150 outbound ship/insurance (assumptions). Net-to-owner ≈ $4,600×0.85 − 250 ≈ **$3,660**. Profit ≈ $3,660 − $2,810 ≈ **$850**. ROI ≈ **\~30%** (by construction at the €1,714 bid ceiling). **Primary risks** The only risks that really matter here are *cataloguing identity* risks: - BERNAERTS lot could be a **poster/offset** or a non-standard impression (unsigned, later edition, or heavily condition-impaired), which would collapse the comp linkage. - If the “discrete limit” reserve behavior is active, sub-75%-of-low-estimate bids may be impossible to win. [\[3]](https://www.bernaerts.eu/catalog/pdf/Infobrochure_binnenwerk2023_WEB.pdf) Lot URL (BERNAERTS live page, for manual verification): https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-KDZPJF/david-hockney-1934 ### Lot 1514 — Warhol, *Flash‑November 22* **Why it screens as mispriced** The title strongly corresponds to Warhol’s 1968 Flash portfolio imagery. Artcurial sold single-sheet examples titled **“Flash - November 22, 1963 / 1968”** at **€5,248** and **€8,528** (reported as “Sold”). [\[13]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a) This is far above a €1,400–€1,600 estimate band—*if the BERNAERTS lot is an authentic, signed/numbered screenprint from the edition.* **What the work is supposed to be (identity check)** Christie’s describes **the complete set of eleven signed screenprints** (edition 200) as the Flash portfolio object. [\[22]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5622272) MoMA confirms portfolio structure (11 screenprints; edition 200). [\[23]](https://www.moma.org/collection/works/17240) Artcurial’s single-sheet lots explicitly state “screenprint in colors; signed and numbered” with print size around 55.5 cm square and Feldman/Schellmann references. [\[13]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a) **Comps used (auction-only)** - Artcurial Lot 61-a: Sold **€5,248**. [\[24]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a) - Artcurial Lot 62-a: Sold **€8,528**. [\[25]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/62-a) (Artcurial’s “Sold” typically reflects buyer-paid totals; hammer must be treated as *lower* than these figures if premium is included.) **Fair value range (hammer, USD-equivalent)** Conservative conversion, treating Artcurial “Sold” as premium-included and backing off: * **Low FV (hammer):** €4,000 (\~$4,600) * **Base FV (hammer):** €5,000 (\~$5,750) * **High FV (hammer):** €7,000 (\~$8,050) **All-in acquisition model** - Buyer’s premium: 30% + €2 [\[1]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm) - Shipping/insurance assumption: $300 (bigger/framed likelihood) - Target max hammer for ≥30% ROI (base): **\~€2,118** (materially above the mid-estimate, so you have bidding room) Modeled all-in at €2,118 hammer: All-in EUR ≈ €2,118×1.30 + €2 + resale right (modeled) ≈ €2,756 + €2 + €85 ≈ €2,843 → USD ≈ $3,270 + $300 shipping ≈ **$3,570**. **Resale routing (auction-only)** - Christie's (Prints \& Multiples): directly aligned to Warhol’s global print liquidity. [\[22]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5622272) - Phillips (Editions/Prints): often competitive for Warhol prints. - Sotheby’s prints sales: strong bidder pool for Warhol. **Resale economics (base case)** Resale hammer \~$5,750; net-to-owner ≈ $5,750×0.85 − $250 ≈ **$4,640**. Profit ≈ $4,640 − $3,570 ≈ **$1,070**. ROI ≈ **\~30%** (again, by design at the bid ceiling). **Primary risks** - If BERNAERTS lot is **not** a signed/numbered screenprint (e.g., a reproduction, poster, book page, or ephemera page), Artcurial comps are irrelevant. - Portfolio vs. single-sheet ambiguity: Christie’s portfolio description is for the full set; BERNAERTS lot title may refer to a single plate. [\[22]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5622272) Lot URL (BERNAERTS live page, for manual verification): https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-KDZPGD/andy-warhol-1928-1987 ### Lot 1534 — Miró, *Homenatge a Joan Prats* **Why it screens as potentially mispriced** For Miró’s recognized lithographic editions, the €2,500–€3,000 estimate band can be below global auction appetite when the print is (a) **signed**, (b) from a desirable plate/portfolio, and (c) in solid condition. **Hard data retrieved (auction context + edition markers)** An Invaluable archived listing for **“Joan Miró, Lithograph, From 'Homenatge à Joan Prats', 1971”** describes: “signed… numbered 39/75… Maeght 717,” with estimate **$8,800–$11,000** (passed). [\[15]](https://www.invaluable.com/auction-lot/joan-miro-lithograph-from-homenatge-a-joan-prats--44-c-32f478eaf6) An Auctionet listing shows a related “Homenatge a Joan Prats” lithograph (different edition structure: 71/150) with condition notes (yellowing/handling folds/creases). [\[26]](https://auctionet.com/en/events/429-modern-contemporary-autumn-2022/608-joan-miro-homenatge-a-joan-prats-color-lithograph-1972-74-9-x-58-cm) **Fair value range (hammer, USD-equivalent)** Because the only hard market signal retrieved is an *estimate* (and one passed lot), this is a lower-confidence FV band: * **Low FV (hammer):** \~$5,200 * **Base FV (hammer):** \~$6,900 * **High FV (hammer):** \~$8,600 **All-in acquisition model** - Buyer’s premium: 30% + €2 [\[1]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm) - Shipping/insurance assumption: $300 - To underwrite ≥30% ROI in the base FV scenario, target max hammer ≈ **€2,604** (which is **below** the €2,750 mid-estimate, so you need a “soft room” scenario). **Resale routing (auction-only)** - Christie's / Sotheby’s / Phillips: Prints \& Multiples (best liquidity for Miró editions). - Artcurial (Paris): relevant if the specific plate/portfolio has European demand (and Artcurial already transacts Warhol editions at credible levels). [\[24]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a) **Primary risks** - Miró markets are **edition/plate-specific**; a lower-tier later edition can trade dramatically lower. - Condition sensitivity for lithographs is high; Auctionet’s listing shows how minor handling/yellowing is noted even in “good condition.” [\[26]](https://auctionet.com/en/events/429-modern-contemporary-autumn-2022/608-joan-miro-homenatge-a-joan-prats-color-lithograph-1972-74-9-x-58-cm) Lot URL (BERNAERTS live page, for manual verification): https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-KDZP7F/joan-miro-1893-1983 ### Lot 1641 — Turrell, *Squat (from Still Light series)* **Why it screens as potentially mispriced** The Still Light suite is an established auction object category: Christie’s describes the **complete set of eight aquatints**, signed/titled/numbered, edition **30** (plus proofs). [\[7]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029) If BERNAERTS is offering an individual sheet (e.g., “Squat”) with proper signature/numbering, the €2,000–€3,000 estimate could be materially below what higher-visibility venues achieve for Turrell editions. **What can be stated with evidence** - The set exists, and it includes **Squat** among the eight plates. [\[7]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029) - The set’s edition structure is verified in Christie’s cataloguing. [\[27]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029) **Fair value range** Without a publicly retrieved sold price for either the full set or a single sheet, FV is heuristic and therefore **not “green-light”** without more comps: * **Low FV (hammer):** \~$4,600 * **Base FV (hammer):** \~$6,900 * **High FV (hammer):** \~$9,200 **Acquisition and exit** At the base FV, a 30% ROI bid ceiling is roughly **€2,541** hammer—almost exactly the mid-estimate—so the deal only works if the BERNAERTS lot is cleanly catalogued and you can exit at a higher-visibility auction quickly. Lot URL (BERNAERTS live page, for manual verification): https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-KDZPNF/james-turrell-1943 ### Lot 1559 — Hundertwasser, *Homage to Schröder‑Sonnenstern* **Why it’s in the short-list** This screens as a *cheap option* where the downside is bounded if the object is a legitimate signed/numbered work and not a poster. The estimate (€400–€600) is low enough that transaction costs dominate; you only want this if the “real object” is confirmed. **Fair value range and economics** No public sold comp was retrieved in time; FV is heuristic, so this functions as a **watch-then-pounce** rather than an immediate “A-tier” target. If the work is signed/numbered and from a recognized edition and the broader Hundertwasser print market is firm, a \~$1.5k–$2.5k hammer exit band is plausible. Lot URL (BERNAERTS live page, for manual verification): https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-KDZP9P/friedensreich-hundertwasser-1928-2000 ### Lot 1572 — Beuys, *Stirn \&...* **Why it’s in the short-list** Like Hundertwasser, this is mostly about the *object profile*—Beuys ephemera/posters can be cheap; authentic editioned works command more. No public auction comps were retrieved in time, so treat as opportunistic only if you confirm edition/signed/numbered. Lot URL (BERNAERTS live page, for manual verification): https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-KDZPKJ/joseph-beuys-1921-1986 ## Watchlist and required verification checklist The following lots (including “attractive names” where the comp linkage is not yet proven here) should be treated as **watchlist** until you confirm the “print-market identity”: * **Lot 1784, Tuymans — Firewood**: A Christie’s-linked record shows a sold price around **£1,260** for a signed/numbered 14/65 screenprint. [\[28]](https://veryimportantlot.com/en/lot/view/luc-tuymans-b-1958-847949) If BERNAERTS estimate is €1,500–€2,000, it is *not* automatically cheap; only becomes interesting if BERNAERTS impression is superior (condition/provenance) or you expect materially higher demand at a stronger venue. * **Lot 1783, Tuymans — Recherches**: Christie’s documents the set-of-four format and editioning conventions, but a public realized price was not retrieved in time. [\[29]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5595079) * Any “blue chip” contemporary names not comp-checked here (you included Basquiat in your prompt): **do not underwrite a flip** until you have a clean auction comp chain (same image + edition + signature profile). What must be verified for *every* watchlist lot before bidding: - **Medium**: original printmaking process (etching/lithograph/screenprint/aquatint) vs. offset/poster. - **Signature \& numbering**: pencil signature and edition number; match to the catalogued edition size. - **Dimensions**: sheet/image size consistent with known print catalogues. - **Condition**: foxing, fading, creases, mat burn, trimming; these can erase the entire arbitrage spread. - **Auction reserve behavior**: if the “discrete limit = 75% of low estimate” is active, your maximum bid must clear it. [\[3]](https://www.bernaerts.eu/catalog/pdf/Infobrochure_binnenwerk2023_WEB.pdf) ## Bidding and execution playbook for auction-to-auction flips ### Bid construction Given BERNAERTS’ buyer cost stack (30% + €2 + potential droit de suite), the correct approach is to set **hammer ceilings** derived from *net-to-owner at resale*, not from the BERNAERTS estimate band. The BERNAERTS premium lever is large enough that “small mistakes” in hammer translate into meaningful ROI erosion. [\[1]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm) For the main targets above, the model-implied **max hammer bids** (to preserve \~30% base-case ROI) are: * **Lot 1569 (Hockney): \~€1,700** max hammer * **Lot 1514 (Warhol): \~€2,100** max hammer * **Lot 1534 (Miró): \~€2,600** max hammer (requires buying below mid-estimate) * **Lot 1641 (Turrell): \~€2,500** max hammer (only with identity confirmation) These caps already assume seller costs at the exit venue (15% seller commission + handling assumptions). ### Absentee vs. live bidding sequence Because the biggest risk here is **misidentifying what the lot actually is** (poster vs. original print), the best operational tactic is: * **Do not place absentee bids** on any lot where you cannot confirm signature/edition/medium from images or a condition report. * For confirmed targets (Hockney/Warhol), live bidding is preferable because it allows you to stop precisely at your ROI-derived hammer ceiling. ### Documentation and post-win handling For every acquisition intended for resale at auction, secure: * Invoice clearly stating hammer and lot number (needed for provenance trail at resale). * Any condition report or supplemental images used (for consistency when consignment specialists ask). * If the print is supposed to be from a catalogued edition/portfolio, keep the relevant catalogue reference noted in the lot description (e.g., Warhol Flash references appear in auction cataloguing for the suite). [\[30]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5622272) Logistics guidance (value-relevant only): - Avoid reframing unless damage risks exist; auction buyers often prefer “as-found” with transparent condition disclosure. - Use flat, archival shipping with insurance; damage can turn a high-ROI print into a permanent hold. ### Grouping for resale * Do **not** bundle across artists for auction resale; consign as single lots to the strongest department for that artist (Warhol in Prints \& Multiples; Hockney in Editions/Prints; etc.). * The exception is if you can assemble a **portfolio-complete** group (e.g., if multiple sheets from the same series appear and are confirmed authentic/consistent), but that requires more catalog evidence than was retrievable here. ### What was found vs. what remained insufficient Comp-supported, high-asymmetry opportunities clearly surfaced for **Hockney “It Picks Its Way”** and **Warhol “Flash – November 22”** because public auction sources provide both identity detail and price anchors. [\[31]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) For other candidates (Turrell single-sheet, Hundertwasser, Beuys, and some Tuymans works), the inability to retrieve enough **public hammer-level comps** within constraints makes them **conditional**: potentially profitable, but only after on-site verification and a tighter comp pull from auction databases (or additional publicly accessible realized-price records). \--- [\[1]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm) [\[11]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm) https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm [https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/vuyoayblbm) [\[2]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-EPJCA4?jump_to_lot=1658) https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-EPJCA4?jump\_to\_lot=1658 [https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-EPJCA4?jump\_to\_lot=1658](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-EPJCA4?jump_to_lot=1658) [\[3]](https://www.bernaerts.eu/catalog/pdf/Infobrochure_binnenwerk2023_WEB.pdf) https://www.bernaerts.eu/catalog/pdf/Infobrochure\_binnenwerk2023\_WEB.pdf [https://www.bernaerts.eu/catalog/pdf/Infobrochure\_binnenwerk2023\_WEB.pdf](https://www.bernaerts.eu/catalog/pdf/Infobrochure_binnenwerk2023_WEB.pdf) [\[4]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a) [\[8]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a) [\[9]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a) [\[13]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a) [\[24]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a) https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a [https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/61-a) [\[5]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) [\[10]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) [\[17]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) [\[20]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) [\[31]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) https://www.phillips.com/detail/%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%9B%C2%B7%E9%9C%8D%E5%85%8B%E5%B0%BC/223191 [https://www.phillips.com/detail/%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%9B%C2%B7%E9%9C%8D%E5%85%8B%E5%B0%BC/223191](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) [\[6]](https://www.invaluable.com/auction-lot/joan-miro-lithograph-from-homenatge-a-joan-prats--44-c-32f478eaf6) [\[15]](https://www.invaluable.com/auction-lot/joan-miro-lithograph-from-homenatge-a-joan-prats--44-c-32f478eaf6) https://www.invaluable.com/auction-lot/joan-miro-lithograph-from-homenatge-a-joan-prats--44-c-32f478eaf6 [https://www.invaluable.com/auction-lot/joan-miro-lithograph-from-homenatge-a-joan-prats--44-c-32f478eaf6](https://www.invaluable.com/auction-lot/joan-miro-lithograph-from-homenatge-a-joan-prats--44-c-32f478eaf6) [\[7]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029) [\[14]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029) [\[16]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029) [\[18]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029) [\[27]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029) https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029 [https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4987029) [\[12]](https://www.moma.org/collection/works/200720) [\[19]](https://www.moma.org/collection/works/200720) https://www.moma.org/collection/works/200720 [https://www.moma.org/collection/works/200720](https://www.moma.org/collection/works/200720) [\[21]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/) https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/ [https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/) [\[22]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5622272) [\[30]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5622272) https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5622272 [https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5622272](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5622272) [\[23]](https://www.moma.org/collection/works/17240) https://www.moma.org/collection/works/17240 [https://www.moma.org/collection/works/17240](https://www.moma.org/collection/works/17240) [\[25]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/62-a) https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/62-a [https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/62-a](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/62-a) [\[26]](https://auctionet.com/en/events/429-modern-contemporary-autumn-2022/608-joan-miro-homenatge-a-joan-prats-color-lithograph-1972-74-9-x-58-cm) https://auctionet.com/en/events/429-modern-contemporary-autumn-2022/608-joan-miro-homenatge-a-joan-prats-color-lithograph-1972-74-9-x-58-cm [https://auctionet.com/en/events/429-modern-contemporary-autumn-2022/608-joan-miro-homenatge-a-joan-prats-color-lithograph-1972-74-9-x-58-cm](https://auctionet.com/en/events/429-modern-contemporary-autumn-2022/608-joan-miro-homenatge-a-joan-prats-color-lithograph-1972-74-9-x-58-cm) [\[28]](https://veryimportantlot.com/en/lot/view/luc-tuymans-b-1958-847949) https://veryimportantlot.com/en/lot/view/luc-tuymans-b-1958-847949 [https://veryimportantlot.com/en/lot/view/luc-tuymans-b-1958-847949](https://veryimportantlot.com/en/lot/view/luc-tuymans-b-1958-847949) [\[29]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5595079) https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5595079 [https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5595079](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-5595079) --- --- --- --- # Auction Mispricing \& Arbitrage Scanner for BERNAERTS Works on Paper I and II ## Auction universe, access constraints, and assumptions The lot universe for this scan is the attached BERNAERTS sale extract (XLSX/CSV/PDF variants of the same table) covering BERNAERTS Works on Paper I (lots in the 1000s) and Works on Paper II (lots in the 1500–1800s), limited to prints/multiples in the user-provided file set. fileciteturn0file0 The sale itself is listed as taking place on April 1, 2026, with sessions at 10:00 and 14:00 (CEST/CET as displayed by the listing platform). [\[1]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/VUYOAYBLBM) Since the user’s operating time zone is America/Los\_Angeles, note that a 10:00 CEST start is typically overnight/early morning Pacific time (time conversion is operational-only; confirm the auction room clock inside the live platform). [\[1]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/VUYOAYBLBM) **Buyer’s premium (verbatim, as visible in the online sale listing):** “The buyer's premium amounts to 30% + €2 administration fee per lot, to be increased where applicable by resale right (droit de suite).” [\[2]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) Because the BERNAERTS live lot pages could not be reliably opened in this environment (the platform is JavaScript-dependent and/or access-restricted), certain lot-level fields (condition notes, full medium lines, exact signature phrasing, edition statement) must be treated as **“verify on-platform / request condition report”** unless corroborated by external cataloguing. [\[3]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-EPXA2F/charlotte-de-cock-1988) ### Cost model used for arbitrage math All-in acquisition cost is modeled as: **All-in cost (USD)** = *(hammer EUR × (1 + 30% buyer’s premium + ARR%)) + €2 admin* → converted to USD + inbound shipping/insurance **ARR / droit de suite assumption:** In the EU, Artist’s Resale Right rates are commonly structured on a sliding scale beginning at **4% up to €50,000** of the sale price, with the directive explicitly covering “prints, lithographs” among eligible works (subject to national thresholds and professional-market rules). [\[4]](https://www.ippt.eu/legal-texts/resale-right-directive/resale-right-directive-3) Because BERNAERTS states the premium is “increased where applicable” by resale right, this model applies **4% of hammer** as a practical planning assumption for any lot likely subject to ARR (living artists and estates within the applicable post-death term), with a prominent **VERIFY** flag per lot. [\[5]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **Tax assumption:** tax/VAT treatment is not explicitly confirmed in the accessible text for this exact sale; this report assumes **no net tax cost** due to business/export structuring, but this is **high-stakes to verify** in Belgium before bidding. [\[2]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **Shipping assumptions (planning numbers):** - Small/medium unframed works on paper: **$150–$300** inbound and **$100–$250** outbound (venue-dependent). - Oversize sheet / framed lots: **$350–$500** inbound is typical. These are placeholders because the live lot pages/condition notes were not fully accessible here. [\[3]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-EPXA2F/charlotte-de-cock-1988) ## Comp method and what counts as “fair value” This report uses **auction-only** comparables (no gallery/retail asking prices) and prioritizes: - Same work / same series and comparable edition format when possible. - Higher-liquidity venues for the exit leg (major prints departments and strong online editions platforms). - “Sold For” figures shown in auction archives are frequently **price realized including premium**; where needed, hammer is approximated by backing out the stated buyer’s premium schedule for that venue (and clearly marked as approximation). [\[6]](https://dist.phillips.com/content/web/docs/forms/London_Conditions_of_Sale_2024_04_01.pdf) Example: For Phillips[\[7]](https://fineart.ha.com/itm/prints-and-multiples/bruce-nauman-b-1941-suposter-1972lithograph-and-screenprint-in-colors-on-arjomari-paper36-1/a/18168-40054.s) London conditions, the standard buyer’s premium is stated as **29% + VAT** up to £800,000 (with VAT-inclusive equivalents also outlined). [\[8]](https://dist.phillips.com/content/web/docs/forms/London_Conditions_of_Sale_2024_04_01.pdf) ## Ranked actionable mispricing targets The following are the **strongest executable edges** found where (a) the BERNAERTS estimate is materially below auction comps and (b) the deal still works **after** premium + ARR + shipping + seller fees at the exit venue (auction-only). **Interpretation note:** Because lot-page access was constrained, the table assumes the BERNAERTS entries are the standard, signed/editioned versions implied by their titles. Any mismatch (unsigned poster, later reproduction, condition defect) can destroy the edge; those risks are called out per lot. [\[3]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-EPXA2F/charlotte-de-cock-1988) |Lot No|Artist / Title|BERNAERTS Estimate|Your Fair Value (Base, hammer)|All-in Cost (Est.)|Optimal Resale Venue|Value Realization (%)|Expected ROI (Base %)|Liquidity Tier|Notes| |-:|-|-:|-:|-:|-|-:|-:|:-:|-| |1569|David Hockney[\[9]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) — *It Picks Its Way* (from *The Blue Guitar*)|€800–1,200 fileciteturn0file0|\~$4,000|\~$2,150 (if bought at €1,200)|Phillips / Bonhams / Swann|\~+248%|\~+46%|A|Comp-supported; verify BERNAERTS sheet is signed/numbered ed. 200. [\[10]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191)| |1514|Andy Warhol[\[11]](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a) — *Flash – November 22, 1963* (single plate from portfolio)|€1,400–1,600 fileciteturn0file0|\~$5,500|\~$2,770 (if bought at €1,600)|Phillips / Bonhams / Christie’s prints online|\~+218%|\~+60%|A|The cleanest “venue upgrade” edge; verify plate/FS number + signature placement. [\[12]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/andy-warhol/164308)| |1513|Niki de Saint Phalle[\[13]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-EPXA2F/charlotte-de-cock-1988) — *Sweet Sexy Clarice* (1968)|€300–400 fileciteturn0file0|\~€850 (≈$1,100)|\~$615 (if bought at €300; EU-to-EU ship)|Artcurial / Bonhams online Editions|\~+174%|\~+36%|B|Works only if you buy at the bottom of estimate range and keep shipping intra-EU. [\[14]](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a)| |1641|James Turrell — *Squat* (Still Light / First Light family risk)|€2,000–3,000 fileciteturn0file0|$6,000–$8,000 (wide)|\~$4,100 (if bought at €2,500)|Phillips Editions / major prints platforms|+109% to +178%|\~+23% to +65%|B|High-variance: must confirm exact series (“Still Light” vs “First Light”), signature/numbering, and margins. [\[15]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/NY030624/327)| “Value Realization (%)” is computed as: *(Base fair hammer – BERNAERTS mid-estimate converted to USD) ÷ BERNAERTS mid-estimate converted to USD* under the FX noted in assumptions; ROI includes BERNAERTS premium + admin + assumed ARR + shipping and a representative seller fee at the resale venue. ## Deal dossiers ### Lot 1569 — David Hockney, *It Picks Its Way* (from *The Blue Guitar*) **BERNAERTS lot identifiers (from uploaded sale extract):** Lot 1569, artist and title as listed, estimate €800–1,200. fileciteturn0file0 **Work type / edition baseline (what the work is in the market):** Museum cataloguing records the work as an etching and aquatint from *The Blue Guitar*, edition **200**. [\[16]](https://www.moma.org/collection/works/200720) A recent National Gallery of Art[\[17]](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a) entry also documents plate/sheet dimensions consistent with the portfolio format. [\[18]](https://www.nga.gov/artworks/72303-it-picks-its-way) **Key auction comp(s) used** - Phillips lot detailing the same subject (*It Picks Its Way, plate 4 from The Blue Guitar*) shows **Sold For £4,128**, signed and numbered 113/200. [\[19]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) - Phillips London conditions state a standard buyer’s premium of **29% + VAT** (so a rough hammer proxy is £4,128 ÷ 1.29 ≈ **£3,200**, VAT ignored as a simplifying assumption). [\[6]](https://dist.phillips.com/content/web/docs/forms/London_Conditions_of_Sale_2024_04_01.pdf) **Fair value (hammer-only, USD)** - **Low:** $3,200 (if consigned to a mid-tier online prints sale) - **Base:** $4,000 (consistent with a strong editions venue achieving \~£3,200 hammer equivalent) - **High:** $5,000 (if framed, clean margins, strong auction moment / competitive bidding) (These are derived from Phillips “Sold For” and premium-backout approximation.) [\[20]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) **All-in acquisition cost model (base plan)** - Target purchase hammer: **€1,200** (top of estimate; discipline to stay within arbitrage band). fileciteturn0file0 - BERNAERTS charges: 30% + €2 admin, plus assumed ARR 4% where applicable. [\[5]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) - Inbound shipping/insurance assumption: **$300** (unframed sheet, flat packing). **All-in (USD, base):** ≈ **$2,150**. **Resale routing (auction-only)** - **Phillips (Editions)** — proven liquidity for this exact portfolio; comp already at Phillips. [\[20]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) - **Bonhams**[**\[21]**](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/) **Prints \& Multiples** — consistent mid-market prints buyer base and fast online cycles. [\[22]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/) - **Swann** — strong works-on-paper buyer pool for modern prints (venue-fit rationale; verify department calendar). **Resale economics (base scenario)** - Expected resale hammer: **$4,000** - Seller fee assumption: **15%** (negotiable; assumption disclosed) - Outbound shipping to auction house: **$250** **Net-to-owner:** $4,000 × 0.85 − $250 = **$3,150** **Expected profit:** \~$3,150 − $2,150 = **\~$1,000** **Expected ROI:** **\~46%** **Primary risks** - If the BERNAERTS sheet is not the signed/numbered editioned state (e.g., unsigned reproduction), value collapses. - Condition issues (foxing, mat burn, trimmed margins) are common value killers in this portfolio; must verify. [\[22]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/) \--- ### Lot 1514 — Andy Warhol, *Flash – November 22, 1963* (1968) **BERNAERTS lot identifiers:** Lot 1514, Warhol, *Flash-November 22*, estimate €1,400–1,600. fileciteturn0file0 **Market identity of the work** Phillips cataloguing for a single-plate example of *Flash – November 22, 1963* records: screenprint, full sheet \~21 × 21 in, signed/numbered from **edition 200**. [\[23]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/andy-warhol/164308) **Key auction comp(s) used** - Phillips: *Flash – November 22, 1963: one plate* shows **Sold For $8,190** (price realized as displayed). [\[23]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/andy-warhol/164308) - Artcurial[\[24]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) sale results show a closely related plate from the portfolio as “Sold: €8,528” (example listed with F\&S reference and edition statement). [\[25]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/62-a) **Fair value (hammer-only, USD)** Because many auction archives display price realized (often incl. premium), the hammer-only fair value is stated as a **range** anchored to the observed realized figures: - **Low:** $4,500 hammer equivalent - **Base:** $5,500 hammer equivalent - **High:** $7,000 hammer equivalent (Conservative relative to the displayed $8,190 realized at Phillips.) [\[12]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/andy-warhol/164308) **All-in acquisition cost model** - Target purchase hammer: **€1,600** (top estimate; do not exceed without updated live bid signals). fileciteturn0file0 - BERNAERTS premium/admin + assumed ARR: as stated in assumptions. [\[5]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) - Inbound shipping/insurance: **$300** **All-in (USD, base):** ≈ **$2,770** **Resale routing** - **Phillips Editions** — demonstrated demand for the series and strong marketing of Pop prints. [\[26]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/andy-warhol/164308) - **Bonhams Prints \& Multiples** — often strong for recognizable Warhols in the $5k–$15k band. [\[27]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/30925/lot/19/andy-warhol-1928-1987-untitled-from-flash-november-22-1963/) - **Christie's**[**\[28]**](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/26141/lot/77/robert-indiana-1928-2018-triangle-hexagon-nonagon-from-polygons-3-works/) **Prints \& Multiples (online)** — venue upgrade relative to BERNAERTS; suitable for editioned Warhol works on paper. [\[29]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-4229445) **Resale economics (base)** - Expected resale hammer: **$5,500** - Seller fee assumption: **15%** - Outbound shipping: **$250** **Net-to-owner:** $5,500 × 0.85 − $250 = **$4,425** **Expected profit:** \~$4,425 − $2,770 = **\~$1,655** **Expected ROI:** **\~60%** **Primary risks** - “Flash” has multiple plates/references; value depends on exact plate reference, signature placement, and whether it’s standard edition vs proof/variant. [\[12]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/andy-warhol/164308) - Any condition defect (abrasions, staining, trimming) disproportionately impacts resale at top venues. \--- ### Lot 1513 — Niki de Saint Phalle, *Sweet Sexy Clarice* (1968) **BERNAERTS lot identifiers:** Lot 1513, title/artist as listed, estimate €300–400. fileciteturn0file0 **Auction comp (same work)** Artcurial lists the same title and year (*Sweet Sexy Clarice – 1968*), describing it as a signed and numbered color serigraph **48/75**, and shows “Vendu: **984 €**” (sold price as displayed), with condition noted as good overall. [\[30]](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a) A museum record at the National Gallery of Art describes the work as a 1968 color screenprint with sheet dimensions consistent with the editioned poster-format prints. [\[31]](https://www.nga.gov/artworks/173756-sweet-sexy-clarice) **Fair value (hammer-only, EUR)** Because the Artcurial display may be inclusive of fees depending on site convention, fair value is stated as a hammer range: - **Low:** €700 - **Base:** €850 - **High:** €1,000 [\[30]](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a) **Acquisition discipline to make it work** This lot is only “real arbitrage” if you **buy at the bottom**: - Target purchase hammer: **≤ €300** (if bidding drifts toward €400, the edge compresses sharply). fileciteturn0file0 **All-in cost (EU routing assumption)** - Hammer €300 → apply 30% + €2 + assumed 4% ARR. [\[5]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) - Inbound EU shipping: **$150** (keep it EU to avoid eating the edge). **All-in (USD, target-case):** ≈ **$615** **Resale venues** - **Artcurial Limited Edition / online editions sales** — direct comp supports demand at this venue. [\[30]](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a) - **Bonhams online Prints \& Multiples** — comparable lot format (editioned, signed) and consistent buyer flow. [\[32]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/26141/lot/77/robert-indiana-1928-2018-triangle-hexagon-nonagon-from-polygons-3-works/) **Resale economics (base)** - Expected resale hammer (USD): $1,100 (≈€850) - Seller fee assumption: 15% - Outbound EU shipping: $100 **Net-to-owner:** $1,100 × 0.85 − $100 = **$835** **Expected profit:** $835 − $615 = **$220** **Expected ROI:** **\~36%** **Primary risks** - This format is vulnerable to condition (handling creases, edge tears). Since BERNAERTS condition notes were not accessible here, inspection is mandatory. [\[33]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-EPXA2F/charlotte-de-cock-1988) \--- ### Lot 1641 — James Turrell, *Squat* (print from the Still Light / First Light family) **BERNAERTS lot identifiers:** Lot 1641, “Squat (from Still Light series), 1989,” estimate €2,000–3,000. fileciteturn0file0 **Why this is interesting** The upside case comes from the fact that the market heavily rewards Turrell’s large-format aquatint editions (edition 30 scale), and certain series/plates trade far above mid-market regional estimates. **Anchor auction comps (series-adjacent)** - Phillips sold **“Squat, from First Light”** with estimate $6,000–9,000 for **Sold For $17,780** (as displayed), describing it as signed/numbered from edition 30 + proofs. [\[34]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/NY030624/327) - Phillips sold the complete **Still Light** set of eight aquatints for **£16,250** (as displayed), edition 30, suggesting that Still Light as a set has established auction liquidity. [\[35]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/UK030116/28) - Christie’s cataloguing describes Still Light as eight aquatints, each signed/titled/numbered from edition 30 (institutional-quality reference for what constitutes the set). [\[36]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-6502552) **Fair value range (hammer-only, USD)** This must be wide due to series ambiguity (Still Light vs First Light plate): - **Low:** $4,000 (if it performs like a mid-market single from a set) - **Base:** $6,000 - **High:** $8,000+ (if series/plate is treated as a marquee Turrell print and marketed correctly) [\[37]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/NY030624/327) **Acquisition discipline** - Target purchase hammer: **€2,000–€2,500** (if it runs to €3,000 hammer, the base case needs a stronger resale venue outcome). **All-in cost (target-case)** - Hammer €2,500, BERNAERTS premium/admin + assumed 4% ARR. [\[5]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) - Inbound shipping: **$250–$450** depending on whether it is framed or requires flat crate. **All-in (USD, planning):** ≈ **$4,100** **Resale venues** - Phillips Editions / Works on Paper — highest probability of capturing the “Turrell premium” for institutional-looking editions. [\[34]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/NY030624/327) - Christie’s online prints platform — strong reach, but seller fee/lot fee must be negotiated. [\[36]](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-6502552) - Bonhams prints online — fallback liquidity. **Resale economics** - Base scenario (hammer $6,000; 12–15% seller fee; $200–$300 shipping): ROI tends to be **mid-teens to mid-20s**. - Upside scenario (hammer $8,000): ROI can move into **50%+** territory. [\[37]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/NY030624/327) **Primary risks (must clear before bidding seriously)** - Confirm **exact series/plate** and whether it is the same market class as “Squat, from First Light.” [\[38]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/NY030624/327) - Confirm signature/numbering/margins and whether the sheet is framed (framing can hide issues and raises shipping costs). ## Watchlist and due diligence triggers These are lots that may be mispriced but are **not yet comp-clean** under the constraints (limited BERNAERTS lot-page access). They should be treated as “only bid if verified on-platform with photos + condition notes + edition statement.” **Lot 1534 — Joan Miró**[**\[39]**](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a)**, *Homenatge à Joan Prats* (1975), estimate €2,500–3,000.** fileciteturn0file0 Bonhams sold the same 1975 reference (Maeght 1034; Cramer bk. 208), edition 100, for **$5,376 inc. premium** (as displayed). [\[40]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/29220/lot/47/joan-miro-1893-1983-homenatge-a-joan-prats/) A smaller venue result shows dramatically lower performance ($1,500 at an Arizona auction), demonstrating venue sensitivity. [\[41]](https://www.larsenartauction.com/auction-lot/joan-miro-homenatge-a-joan-prats-maeght-1034-cr_80540C791F) **What to verify:** whether BERNAERTS sheet is numbered vs H.C., condition/margins, and whether you can realistically buy **below** low estimate (this deal needs an unusually soft hammer to be “clear arbitrage”). [\[42]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/29220/lot/47/joan-miro-1893-1983-homenatge-a-joan-prats/) **Lot 1731 — Christo**[**\[43]**](https://www.christies.com/en/lot/lot-6502552)**, *Wrapped Reichstag, Project for Berlin* (1994), estimate €200–300.** fileciteturn0file0 Bonhams shows low-to-mid three-figure realized pricing for signed offset lithographs of the project (e.g., **$446.25 inc. premium**; and **€588.80 inc. premium** for a plexiglas/fabric-collage variant). [\[44]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/27064/lot/75/) **What to verify:** whether the BERNAERTS item is the higher-value plexiglas + fabric collage format or a standard poster-like offset; margin/handling issues; if it’s the standard format, the 30% premium + ARR often kills the flip. **Lot 1784 — Luc Tuymans, *Firewood* (1994), estimate €1,500–2,000.** fileciteturn0file0 Christie’s provides full cataloguing for *Firewood* as a signed/numbered screenprint from edition 65. [\[45]](https://onlineonly.christies.com/s/le-jeune-collecting-legacy-london-no-reserve-edit/luc-tuymans-b-1958-8/167447) **What to verify:** obtain at least two recent realized prices (auction archives) and confirm BERNAERTS sheet size aligns (Tuymans has multiple works with similar titles/years). **Lot 1546 — Bruce Nauman, *Suposter* (1972), estimate €400–600.** fileciteturn0file0 Institutional cataloguing confirms the medium as lithograph + screenprint on Arjomari wove through Gemini G.E.L. [\[46]](https://www.nga.gov/artworks/66080-suposter) Heritage provides edition details (e.g., ed. 31/72) but recent sold pricing may require account access on some venues. [\[47]](https://fineart.ha.com/itm/prints-and-multiples/bruce-nauman-b-1941-suposter-1972lithograph-and-screenprint-in-colors-on-arjomari-paper36-1/a/18168-40054.s) **What to verify:** recent (2019–2026) hammer comps at mainstream venues (Bonhams/Phillips/Christie’s online). ## Bidding and execution playbook Given the premium structure (“30% + €2 … increased … by resale right”), BERNAERTS is a **high-fee acquisition venue**, so bidding must be **ROI-gated** rather than estimate-gated. [\[48]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **Target prioritization** 1) Lot 1569 (Hockney) and Lot 1514 (Warhol) are the only lots in this scan that show a robust, comp-supported venue-upgrade edge even if you buy near the top estimate band. [\[49]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) 2) Lot 1513 (Niki de Saint Phalle) is a “small ticket, positive edge” only with strict purchase discipline (≤€300 hammer) and EU routing to minimize shipping. [\[50]](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a) 3) Lot 1641 (Turrell) is an “options trade” with high upside, but only if series/edition details check out and you can route it to a top editions platform. [\[38]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/NY030624/327) **Max hammer bids (disciplined)** - **Lot 1569 (Hockney):** max hammer **€1,200** (go a touch higher only if you confirm exceptional condition + full margins). [\[20]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) - **Lot 1514 (Warhol):** max hammer **€1,800–€2,000** if the sheet is confirmed signed/numbered standard edition and clean; otherwise stay at estimate ceiling. [\[12]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/andy-warhol/164308) - **Lot 1513 (Niki):** max hammer **€300**; if it breaks €300, pass. [\[50]](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a) - **Lot 1641 (Turrell):** provisional max hammer **€2,500** until series/edition confirmed. **Absentee vs live** Given the fee drag and the need for strict max hammers, **absentee bids with hard ceilings** are generally preferable to discretionary live bidding for all but the Warhol/Hockney, where you may want to react to whether the room is thin. (Operationally, this is about enforcing ROI discipline under fast increments.) [\[2]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) **Documentation to secure immediately upon winning** - Invoice showing hammer, buyer’s premium line, admin fee, and any ARR/droit de suite add-on (BERNAERTS explicitly flags this possibility). [\[48]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) - Lot description page (PDF save) and images as evidence of edition statement/signature status at time of sale (critical for later auction consignment). [\[3]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-EPXA2F/charlotte-de-cock-1988) **Resale packaging** - Avoid reframing unless necessary for condition/presentation; conserve margins and keep the work in a sale-friendly state (top venues prefer untrimmed sheets and clear margin visibility). This is especially important for *The Blue Guitar* print format and Warhol portfolio sheets where marginal defects are common deal-breakers. [\[51]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/) \--- [\[1]](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/VUYOAYBLBM) https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/VUYOAYBLBM [https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/VUYOAYBLBM](https://www.invaluable.com/catalog/VUYOAYBLBM) [\[2]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) [\[5]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) [\[24]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) [\[48]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) Works on Paper I (Lot 1000-1116) [https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm\_source=chatgpt.com](https://live.bernaerts.eu/auctions/4-KD1UHI/works-on-paper-i-lot-1000-1116?utm_source=chatgpt.com) [\[3]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-EPXA2F/charlotte-de-cock-1988) [\[13]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-EPXA2F/charlotte-de-cock-1988) [\[33]](https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-EPXA2F/charlotte-de-cock-1988) https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-EPXA2F/charlotte-de-cock-1988 [https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-EPXA2F/charlotte-de-cock-1988](https://live.bernaerts.eu/lots/view/4-EPXA2F/charlotte-de-cock-1988) [\[4]](https://www.ippt.eu/legal-texts/resale-right-directive/resale-right-directive-3) https://www.ippt.eu/legal-texts/resale-right-directive/resale-right-directive-3 [https://www.ippt.eu/legal-texts/resale-right-directive/resale-right-directive-3](https://www.ippt.eu/legal-texts/resale-right-directive/resale-right-directive-3) [\[6]](https://dist.phillips.com/content/web/docs/forms/London_Conditions_of_Sale_2024_04_01.pdf) [\[8]](https://dist.phillips.com/content/web/docs/forms/London_Conditions_of_Sale_2024_04_01.pdf) https://dist.phillips.com/content/web/docs/forms/London\_Conditions\_of\_Sale\_2024\_04\_01.pdf [https://dist.phillips.com/content/web/docs/forms/London\_Conditions\_of\_Sale\_2024\_04\_01.pdf](https://dist.phillips.com/content/web/docs/forms/London_Conditions_of_Sale_2024_04_01.pdf) [\[7]](https://fineart.ha.com/itm/prints-and-multiples/bruce-nauman-b-1941-suposter-1972lithograph-and-screenprint-in-colors-on-arjomari-paper36-1/a/18168-40054.s) [\[47]](https://fineart.ha.com/itm/prints-and-multiples/bruce-nauman-b-1941-suposter-1972lithograph-and-screenprint-in-colors-on-arjomari-paper36-1/a/18168-40054.s) https://fineart.ha.com/itm/prints-and-multiples/bruce-nauman-b-1941-suposter-1972lithograph-and-screenprint-in-colors-on-arjomari-paper36-1/a/18168-40054.s [https://fineart.ha.com/itm/prints-and-multiples/bruce-nauman-b-1941-suposter-1972lithograph-and-screenprint-in-colors-on-arjomari-paper36-1/a/18168-40054.s](https://fineart.ha.com/itm/prints-and-multiples/bruce-nauman-b-1941-suposter-1972lithograph-and-screenprint-in-colors-on-arjomari-paper36-1/a/18168-40054.s) [\[9]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) [\[10]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) [\[19]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) [\[20]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) [\[49]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) https://www.phillips.com/detail/%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%9B%C2%B7%E9%9C%8D%E5%85%8B%E5%B0%BC/223191 [https://www.phillips.com/detail/%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%9B%C2%B7%E9%9C%8D%E5%85%8B%E5%B0%BC/223191](https://www.phillips.com/detail/%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E8%25A1%259B%25C2%25B7%25E9%259C%258D%25E5%2585%258B%25E5%25B0%25BC/223191) [\[11]](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a) [\[14]](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a) [\[17]](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a) [\[30]](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a) [\[39]](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a) [\[50]](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a) https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a [https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a](https://www.artcurial.com/ventes/IT6150/lots/111-a) [\[12]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/andy-warhol/164308) [\[23]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/andy-warhol/164308) [\[26]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/andy-warhol/164308) https://www.phillips.com/detail/andy-warhol/164308 [https://www.phillips.com/detail/andy-warhol/164308](https://www.phillips.com/detail/andy-warhol/164308) [\[15]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/NY030624/327) [\[34]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/NY030624/327) [\[37]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/NY030624/327) [\[38]](https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/NY030624/327) https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/NY030624/327 [https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/NY030624/327](https://www.phillips.com/detail/james-turrell/NY030624/327) [\[16]](https://www.moma.org/collection/works/200720) https://www.moma.org/collection/works/200720 [https://www.moma.org/collection/works/200720](https://www.moma.org/collection/works/200720) [\[18]](https://www.nga.gov/artworks/72303-it-picks-its-way) https://www.nga.gov/artworks/72303-it-picks-its-way [https://www.nga.gov/artworks/72303-it-picks-its-way](https://www.nga.gov/artworks/72303-it-picks-its-way) [\[21]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/) [\[22]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/) [\[51]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/) https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/ [https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/16084/lot/278/david-hockney-british-born-1937-it-picks-its-way-from-the-blue-guitar/) [\[25]](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/62-a) https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/62-a [https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/62-a](https://www.artcurial.com/en/sales/6042/lots/62-a) [\[27]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/30925/lot/19/andy-warhol-1928-1987-untitled-from-flash-november-22-1963/) https://www.bonhams.com/auction/30925/lot/19/andy-warhol-1928-1987-untitled-from-flash-november-22-1963/ [https://www.bonhams.com/auction/30925/lot/19/andy-warhol-1928-1987-untitled-from-flash-november-22-1963/](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/30925/lot/19/andy-warhol-1928-1987-untitled-from-flash-november-22-1963/) [\[28]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/26141/lot/77/robert-indiana-1928-2018-triangle-hexagon-nonagon-from-polygons-3-works/) [\[32]](https://www.bonhams.com/auction/26141/lot/77/robert-indiana-1928-2018-triangle-hexagon-nonagon-from-polygons-3-works/) https://www.bonhams.com/auction/26141/lot/77/robert-indiana-1928-2018-triangle-hexagon-nonagon-from-polygons-3-works/ 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Research Notes: Bernaerts: Works on Paper I & II
Bernaerts · Belgium · Apr 1, 2026
Detailed research / arbitrage notes for this sale.
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